the Fly Clone Project

That link appears to be a $300 listing for a set of pre-refined knobs that the seller used to offload a $100 set of pickups at the same time. I’ll be surprised If the buyer didn’t immediately try to flip the Gen 1s.

Being as we’re comparing conjectures concerning the prospect of hype driving Flys to fetch five figures in our lifetimes: On paper, any luthier capable of building or acquiring their own jigs and tooling (as Ken was/is) could build a Fly derivative in their garage. I suspect trend-chasing, independent builders - eager to punch above their weight in an oversaturated market - have taken notice of the growth of this small bubble we’re discussing.

Consequently, I expect to see a small resurgence of imitations ranging from similar body shapes and emphasis placed on non-wood construction (as Switch and Halo guitars did, to differing extents) to specifically advertising components printed from carbon fiber nylon filament (as Koloss fell on their face doing) to become more prevalent on Reverb and AliExpress. Gibson and Aristides were seemingly a few years late to capitalize on the 2010s resurgence of the headless fad, but their price points were clear indicators of how far they were willing to dip their toes into the market (with sub-$500 Steinbergers and $3k+ Aristides H/0 models). I feel these were concessions that served to validate the market footprints of small competing brands such as Bootlegger (sub-$700) and Strandberg ($2k+ following years of criticism for asking $1.5k+).

I similarly expect those taking notice of the scarcity-fueled Parker market to roll out competition at a range of price points.

For those of us in our community who feel having all their equity tied up in a collection of Ken’s goofy Jetsons guitars is a sound investment, I fear it would require an explosion in popularity (either amongst one of these hypothetical Fly-derivatives, or due to a pop musician’s endorsement of a “vintage” Fly) to drive asking prices much higher than they are currently.

As it is, it seems to be scarcity alone driving used Flys, NiteFlys, and P-series instruments to (finally) be listed for around their previous MAP. The difference resulting from ever-increasing fees, commissions, shipping costs, and sales tax further padding out asking and final sales prices by more than $200 must also be considered and discounted (In 2020, I paid at least $900 more in taxed guitar acquisitions and passed seller overhead than I would have in 2018). Even then, many of these sellers are listing high; with intent to negotiate lower prices (even if their minimum is ultimately unrealistic).

With Fly circumstances remaining as they are, I expect currency inflation to fuel a slow climb toward a $4k average asking price within the next two years, with occasional financial crises putting owners in the position of offloading Flys for a “sure” $2k. I’ll consider the realistic number to fall somewhere between.

...My conjectures bore even me.

mmmguitar wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 12:18 pm ...My conjectures bore even me.

FWIW—I followed along for the ride and didn’t find it boring...I think you’ve got some good insights, especially about the notion of the Fly as “an investment”. Financially, I don’t think, in general, guitars are wise investments any longer; for a time, that seemed to be the case (vintage Gibsons, etc.). Philosophically, my personal view is that guitars are tools to be used to facilitate musicianship, and if you plan to keep the instrument forever and use it in a specific intended way: tweak and mod away! Even if that ruins their resale value; life is now!

mmmguitar wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 12:18 pm That link appears to be a $300 listing for a set of pre-refined knobs that the seller used to offload a $100 set of pickups at the same time. I’ll be surprised If the buyer didn’t immediately try to flip the Gen 1s.

Well, look again. It's a $400 pair of humbuckers with a free "gift" of pre-refined knobs added. In full disclosure, I got a set of knobs FREE from the same seller after contacting him to see if he had any more "gifts" to sell me. The guy took my address and mailed me a set of knobs next day for free. But the point is, the humbuckers were sold at that price, not the knobs. And it's $400, not $300. You're confused about everything. You may claim the buyer was crazy, but that's another rabbit hole. The last word on this topic won't be said until 30 or 40 years have passed. And guitars are not necessarily investments--neither are cars. But some (just like cars) depreciate the moment you put your hands on them, and others go ballistic with time. There is a good chance the Parker Fly will be one of those in 30 years.

By the way, do you have a pair of Gen1 in excellent condition you can sell me for $100, please?

vjmanzo wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 12:36 pm Philosophically, my personal view is that guitars are tools to be used to facilitate musicianship, and if you plan to keep the instrument forever and use it in a specific intended way: tweak and mod away! Even if that ruins their resale value; life is now!

That’s my sentiment, as well - which results in others’ sentiments shaping the marketplace I find myself in. I’m personally looking forward to this apparent resale bubble plateauing or outright bursting; if only to better my chances of seeing a Belew ponied up for the first time in a few years.

I’m just waiting to catch that hyperbolic (why did my iPad try to autocorrect it to “hyperqueef”?) Reverb listing

“++++VERY RARE!!! PARKER GABRIEL BALOO SIGNATURE FLY GUUTARR #1 OF 0 (AUTOGRAPHED!!!!)+++”

so I can buy it with Affirm right away and then begin the message exchange to try to find out what all’s actually wrong with it, and to inform the owner that the photos show Henry Kaiser’s autograph on the backplate instead of Adrian’s.

I hear what you’re saying, Alejandro. I think it’s worth noting that reverb doesn’t show the final selling price, only the listing price; I think that was the point that mmmguitar was making when he referred to it as a $300 listing.

Regardless: I’d happily admit to being “confused about everything” in the right context, especially as I get older , but I wouldn’t say the same about @mmmguitar

Are you looking actually for a set of Gen1 pickups, or were you making a joke?

mmmguitar wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 1:58 pm “++++VERY RARE!!! PARKER GABRIEL BALOO SIGNATURE FLY GUUTARR #1 OF 0 (AUTOGRAPHED!!!!)+++”

I’ve always loved Gabriel Baloo!! I hear he has an album coming out with Reeves Gabrels’ cousin, Steve Gabrels, where they exclusively play Flys and NiteFlys!!

vjmanzo wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 2:02 pm I hear what you’re saying, Alejandro. I think it’s worth noting that reverb doesn’t show the final selling price, only the listing price; I think that was the point that mmmguitar was making when he referred to it as a $300 listing.

You must be as confused as I am to understand my confusion.

For what its’s worth, I would in fact sell my spare Gen 1 and 2 sets for $100 each if they weren’t already available for order worldwide through Dimarzio retailers - They’re just taking up space in my parts drawer. Banjomikez, for instance, sells Gen 1 and 2 sets new for $160. Hence the $400 listing feeding into my all-encompassing confusion.

vjmanzo wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 2:02 pm I hear what you’re saying, Alejandro. I think it’s worth noting that reverb doesn’t show the final selling price, only the listing price; I think that was the point that mmmguitar was making when he referred to it as a $300 listing.

No, you're right. Reverb doesn't show the taxes paid on that purchase. The final selling price paid was around $450. There was no offer button available. At any rate, I'm not looking to buy a pair of Gen1 for anything, but if you sell me a pair at $100, I'll list it on Reverb at $300 (and it will sell, trust me). Please don't be judgmental and don't blame the market forces of capitalism on me. I have nothing to do with the price people are willing to pay for these things. I'm basically satisfying the demand. Whenever I need to buy something, I tend to pay more that I would like too, and especially more than I would have paid three years ago for the same thing. It's just the way it is. I can't swim against the current.

There will be no bursting of anything. The Flys are not pokemon cards. If you pay 3k for a guitar you like and that you know it's unique and rare, you won't sell it for 2k, period. You will rather keep it for yourself. There is no bubble in this market. A bubble can only exist if the intrinsic value of the item can't justify the price (think of baseball cards or NFT). As long as people are paying 5k for some CustomShop Fender Jazz or some beatup Telecaster, the Flys will have a lot of intrinsic value. I can convince you to dump all of your NFT and Bitcoin at a loss before everyone else does, but I can't convince you to sell at a much lower price a guitar that makes you happy and is in short supply. That's what you guys are not getting. There is no bubble. The price is real, and it may fluctuate down seasonally only two or three hundred dollars until it goes up again. There will be no "excellent-condition" Fly at $1800 going forward. If you find them, please sell them to me at that price or let me know where they are. I will be thrilled to buy them.

Just for my own understanding, I asked Reverb:

When I look at a listing that has sold, is the price that is displayed the price that it actually sold for (respective of any offers that the seller received) or is that amount the original “Add to Cart” asking price?

For example: https://reverb.com/item/37955600-parker ... -rare-gift

Is that amount shown the “final sale price” or just what the seller was originally asking?

and they replied:
Unfortunately, only people who saw the live listing will know if there was even an option for buyers to submit offers. I think this is worth noting in general (and I’m happy to have confirmed): the price shown on “ended listings” is the “original asking price” not the actual amount for which it sold (e.g. after price reductions/accepted offers).

@vjmanzo
No VJ. I think you're referring to the cellphone app and how it displays items that are sold. When you use the cellphone app, you can't see if the item sold through an "offer accepted" or of it sold at the original price. All you see is that the item sold, and you get a view of what the asking price was at the time. But that's entirely different when you use their website on a computer. On their website, you get to see how many offers were made, and if the item had no offer button, which means it was sold at the listing price. Here is an example: 1- The Galaxy Gray sold at a lower price than the listing price because 3 Offers were made and the last one was accepted. 2- The Red Ruby sold at the listing price even though there was an Offer button, because in that case you can see that no offers were made. 3- The humbuckers Gen1 were sold at the listing price, because there was no Offer button for that listing. It was a fixed price sale.
.........................................................................
I can assure you of all this 100%, because I sold the Galaxy Gray and the Red Ruby, and I was watching the Gen1 humbuckers sale live and as soon as they sold I contacted the seller to get pre-refined knobs, which he kindly mailed me at no charge.

Sorry, the Galaxy sold with 1 offer accepted

Hi Alejandro; I’m not referring to anything: I’m quoting a response (the image) to an email I sent to Reverb support (quoted). It seems clear what they are saying: the price shown on a listing that has been marked “sold” or “ended” is the seller’s original asking price.

I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m saying that only the seller, the buyer, and Reverb know with certainty what a particular piece sold for. I understand you’re point though: if a listing shows that there were offers made, it stands to reason that the “selling price” was lower than the “listing price”, and the opposite may also be true: if there were no official offers made, it may have sold for the full asking price. My point is that we don’t really know for sure.

The caution, of course, is the arms race of “listing prices”: a prospective seller looks for old listings, sees that a Fly was listed for $4k, and interprets that amount as the “selling price” when, in fact, it is not necessarily the selling price. Reverb is confirming for us that the amount shown is the “listing price”.

@vjmanzo
I don't think you understand me. Please see the images I posted above. Also please compare these two images between the cellphone app and the website. I sold the galaxy gray with one offer that was submitted to me. You can't see the offer amount neither on the website nor on the app. But on the website you can DEFINITELY see that one offer was made (and that's the one that was accepted). On the app you can't see anything related to the offer; you only get to see the listing price and the alert that "This item has sold".
If you go to the website, you can also see items that have a fixed price and no "Offer" button; those humbuckers are one such case, and I already provided the picture on my prior posting (please check the picture of the humbuckers and compare it to the website picture of the guitar: one has the offer button, the other doesn't). When an item doesn't have an "Offer" button and the item sells, it sells at the listing price. That is a fact. There is simply no other way for you to buy something at any other price than the listing price if the seller doesn't open it to "offers".

Going back to the original topic of the humbuckers, it is a fact that they sold at the listing price, because there was no Offer button available.

There was simply no other way to buy them but at the listing price.

Understood, @Alejandro; thanks for the added info, images, and thoughts.

My intention in contacting Reverb was not to contradict you, but, as I mentioned, to get some clarity on what we’re looking at with the amount shown on a sold/ended listing.

Again, my primary concern is not determining the actual price of that single humbucker listing, but the last part of my previous post about prices steadily escalating as a result of interpreting that amount shown on listings as the “final sale price”. Your observations are correct: with a little effort you can see which listings have offers/offer buttons, but, as you also pointed out: that’s not what everyone sees when they go looking for expired listings.

So now that the price of the humbuckers is known (at least the price for which they sold), the question that arises is: was the buyer a lunatic who overpaid for the humbuckers? The answer could be Yes if we were in the year 2000. No one wanted the Gen1 humbuckers and plenty of people "upgraded" their guitars to the Gen2 humbuckers. In the year 2050 there may be plenty of collectors wanting pristine pre-refined models with no mods or upgrades. They may want everything OEM. In that sort of world, this "lunatic" was probably ahead of the game and his guitar could sell at a much higher price than if he had any other pair of humbuckers installed. That was my point; didn't mean to upset anyone or argue ad nauseam with you. The market is the way it is, and I tend not to swim against it.

Alejandro wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:02 am didn't mean to upset anyone or argue ad nauseam with you.

No worries; no harm done. We're good!

Yes, the OEM-thing is something I understand, but don't find particularly compelling personally; no judgement on anyone who wants to spend more for a verified original component. I think Marc's point was that if you just want the original sound, DiMarzio is still in business and can make you a new set of "Gen 1" pickups. If I was looking for Gen 1's, I'd go that route, but I can understand why someone would want a set made in the 1990s (even if I wouldn't personally do that).

It's not unlike the Gibson Bumblebee Capacitors!!
A typical capacitor is about 50 cents, but a pair of these reissued capacitors by Gibson were sold new for $130. To my ears, I can't tell the difference, but some folks hear with their eyes and their wallets.

Again, ya gotta love guitarists: $130 capacitors, $4,000 guitars, $3,000 amps, $2,500 in pedals, $400 pickup upgrades, and $2.95 on strings that get changed every three months!

To be honest (and feel free to school me; I know you have better information), --I'm not so sure you can get the original Gen1 humbuckers through DiMarzio. This is very interesting and I wanted to ask you: My understanding is the original Parker humbuckers had ceramic magnets. My understanding is that at least the Gen2 were based on the Air Norton and ToneZone, which have Alnico V magnets. Did I get the facts wrong? If that is correct, then the Gen2 or any AirNorton/ToneZone pickups from DiMarzio you get today are not going to be the same as the Gen1 humbuckers.
I would agree with you that sonically speaking it makes little difference whether the humbuckers have ceramic or Alnico V magnets, especially if you're heavily processing your sound with all kinds of pre-amps and FX; by the time you hear the sound, it all sounds alike or the same. Those who claim to hear the difference and qualify one as superior to the other remind me of the wine tasters who claim to find hints of chocolate and cinnamon on a 2k bottle of Burdeau that they can't find in a 20 buck bottle. But in the case of the humbuckers, to a puritan collector 40 years from now, it makes a world of difference if everything is OEM vs modded.

https://huberbreese.com/collections/fen ... tar-used-c

If this piece of junk, straight out of a garbage container, can sell for 40k, please HODL your pre-refined Flys. HODL HODL HODL. Don't sell!!!